Climate Variability and the Productivity of Barley and Oats in Minnesota

Minnesota’s crop economy, which totaled more than $12.7 billion in 2009, depends largely on corn and soybeans. However, a variety of other crops, including wheat, sugar beets, dry beans, alfalfa, sunflower, potatoes, oats, and barley, are also frequently grown in Minnesota. All of these crops are important in Minnesota in large part because its climate is conducive to their growth. The term climate in this context refers to long-term conditions, such as the expected date of the last spring freeze or the expected number of days with temperatures above 90°F; weather, on the other hand, refers to short-term conditions, such as the occurrence of a hail storm, heat wave, or cold snap. One convenient way to think of the distinction is via the adage “Climate is what you expect, and weather is what you get.” Cropping systems in Minnesota have been developed based on “what we expect”—the climate—whereas farmers are well aware that crop yields will depend on “what we get”—the weather. Year-to-year variability in weather conditions is a given in Minnesota. The Minnesota climate, however, also may be changing. For example, long-term observations across Minnesota have provided evidence for higher mean temperatures (particularly at night), higher summer dew points, and higher total precipitation. If Minnesota is experiencing a change in “what we expect,” how might that affect the productivity of individual crops and, consequently, the cropping systems now commonplace in Minnesota? In this work, we investigated how variations in climate—both temperature and precipitation—may affect crop productivity by analyzing long-term records of barley and oat yields in Minnesota. According to the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, Minnesota was the nation’s top producer of oats in 2008 and ranked sixth in the nation in that same year in the production of barley, which is a particularly important crop in the Climate Variability and the Productivity of Barley and Oats in Minnesota